With the recent surprising success of netbooks as well as attempts to create low cost educational notebooks, one would theorize that $100 dollar notebooks would be just around the corner right? Well the folks at Gartner, Inc. think not. They’ve released a research report stating that $100 dollar notebooks will not be a “realistic target for the next three years”.  In fact, all the recent attempts at targeting the $100 dollar notebook market have resulted in systems that actually cost more than $100 dollars.

The research firm noted that declining component prices could lead to price reductions of 10 to 15 percent over the next two to three years but “packaging, assembly and software costs are likely to remain the same.”

Also, Gartner warned that companies may get too focused on breaking the $100 dollar mark and not see other issues associated with small notebooks. Even if $100 dollar notebooks become viable in a few years, there are still many other issues that need to be addressed – especially for poor regions in the world. These issues include limited Internet connectivity as well as limited funds from individuals or families considering such systems. Heck – folks in poorer regions are just trying to make ends meet – would they even consider a $100 dollar notebook? Doubtful.  Thus, if one wants cheap notebooks to proliferate in educational markets, one needs to solve the basic funding problem. Who’s going to pay the bills?

Of course, $100 dollar notebooks are not just for educational markets. Gartner writes:

“Beyond the education sector, mini-notebooks are expanding among consumers, but mini-notebooks business users are also some way off. Gartner believes that for mini-notebooks to be accepted and succeed in the consumer and business segments, they must be positioned not as a computing device but as a window into the Internet and a way for people to work, play, learn, record, report and communicate in any way they choose. Gartner predicts that these devices will proliferate into both emerging and developed economies, among both consumer and business users.”

There’s certainly a fine line between $100 dollar notebooks and mobile devices such as smartphones. A $100 dollar notebook needs to deliver productive functionality that can’t be found on smartphones or PDAs in order to convince consumers to carry such devices.

Give me a $100 dollar notebook that let’s me comfortably type out blog entries on a reasonable screen and I’ll be perfectly happy. No iPhone, PDA, or UMPC can do that for me today.

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